Ryan Francescutti

I may be crazy, but it seems like the housing market has performed better in the first half of this year than our weather! The steadily improving market in our area over the last several months is very encouraging and the positive trend continued in June. Here are a few statistics based on the general data for King and Snohomish Counties.

Inventory has remained low. As of the end of June, active homes for sale increased only 2.6% from May and they are down 18% from last June. Pending sales increased nearly 5% from May and are up 60% from last June! Closed sales rose 6.8% from May and while they are down 7.8% from last June, we were still closing sales that were benefited by the tax credit last year at this time.

Prices are up! Average sales prices jumped up 4.4% to $404,000 in June– that is still down 6.5% from a year ago. Similarly, the average square foot price popped up 4.8% to $183/sqft in June– that is down 5.3% from last year. Average days on market decreased slightly to 97 days which is about the same as last year. And continuing the low inventory theme, we are at only 4 months of inventory based on pending sales, the lowest since April 2010.

I am cautiously optimistic about the rest of the year. There are still plenty of “macro” events to deal with such as persistently high unemployment, budget troubles, etc. But, there are many underlying factors supporting the housing market as well such as low inventory, low interest rates, and favorable rent to purchase ratios.

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Seattle Area Real Estate Recap for May 2011

by Ryan Francescutti

Stats are out for May and momentum is indeed continuing to increase. For King and Snohomish Counties combined, active listings are up a very modest 0.8% from April and down over 16% from last May 2010. Pending sales are up 13.6% from April and up a whopping 67.5% from last May. Of course we had the tax credit last year which stipulated that you needed to be under contract on a purchase by the end of April, so it is no surprise that pending sales fell off a cliff last May. Closed sales increased 2.4% from April and that is off over 11% from last year. Regardless, it’s nice to see a consistent uptrend in pending sales and closed sales this year. And given that new listings are only trickling in, that makes for a fairly balanced market since there is not a huge overhang of supply.

The average sales price in May was $388,000 and $175/sqft for King and Snohomish Counties combined. That is pretty flat compared to April, but down between 6% and 11% from last May. For your reference, average prices when looking at just King County were $436,000 and $191/sqft. And for just Snohomish County, the average price was $275,000 and $134/sqft. Looking at the combined data for the two counties gives a pretty good idea for average home values in the north King and south Snohomish county cities such as Lake Forest Park, Kenmore, Shoreline, Edmonds, and Bothell.

Days on market decreased to 104 from 111 in April, and on average homes are selling at 93% of the Original Listing Price. Of course, if you are priced right and presented well to begin with, your market time will be much shorter and your sales price will be much closer to the asking price.

Finally, as I mentioned in the first paragraph, inventory is remaining relatively low and that is further confirmed when you look at a Months of Inventory chart. Looking at it based on Pending sales, we are now down to only 3.8 months of inventory which is as low as it was right before the tax credit ended last year and even as low as parts of 2006 and early 2007 when market activity was still doing quite well. Needless to say, I believe this is very positive for the market going forward and for the chances of a solid bottom being formed in home prices.

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Seattle Area Real Estate Recap for April 2011

by Ryan Francescutti

Like I’ve mentioned recently, it’s going to be tough to compare this year’s early statistics to last year because we had the tax credit in effect through last April. So, again it is not surprising to see that sales numbers this April are lighter than last year. Nevertheless, they’re holding up pretty well.

Sold and closed homes did decrease 7.2% from March and that is down 18% from last April. But Pending sales were up 5% from March, although that is still down over 18% from last April. Active listings are up only slightly from March, but down over 14% from last year. It’s really unusual not to see more new listings come on the market in the early spring, however our wetter than usual weather could be a contributing factor.

The average sales price for King and Snohomish Counties combined was $388,000 and $178/sqft. That is up 1.5-2% from March but down 5-6% from last April.

The average “Consecutive Days on Market” dropped from 129 to 111 and the “Sales Price as a Percentage of the Original Listing Price” ticked up 1% to 92%. The “Months of Inventory” based on Pending Sales dropped slightly to 3.9 months. That is almost as low as it was last year, again when we had the benefit of the tax credit. Obviously there’s no tax credit this year, but we do have fewer new listings with almost as many buyers so essentially we have a little more demand but with less supply.

My conclusion is that things are quite positive and while there’s been talk of a “double dip” in home prices- which there actually has, it is my humble opinion that this is a dip to buy. Low interest rates and a narrowing rent vs. own ratio is likely to keep demand strong for a while.

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Seattle Area Real Estate Statistics for March 2011

by Ryan Francescutti

Considering that we’re comparing data to last year when we had the tax credit, the housing market is actually holding up quite well. Pending and sold properties increased about 35-40% over February, which is typical as we head into spring. Sold properties declined about 15% from last March but pending sales are about flat compared with last year, which is very impressive. Interestingly, active listings have held flat since February and are down over 13% from last year. It is abnormal not to have a steadily increasing inventory of new listings come on the market going into spring. My theory is that the rainy weather in March might have kept some people from being able to get their homes in perfect shape for listing. Regardless, there are buyers out there so don’t wait until summer time, it’s a great time to be on the market right now.

Prices ticked up a percent or so from February, but that is still off 7-8% from last March. Specifically, the average sales price for all of King and Snohomish counties combined was $382,000 and $176/sqft.

Days on market did continue to increase and is now at 129 days. The “Sales Price as a percentage of the Original List Price” held steady at 91%.

Finally, since the new listings didn’t increase at all, the pop in the pending sales made the months of inventory (based on pending sales) decrease to only 3.6 months. That’s lower than the lowest point reached last year which was 3.7 months in April.

In my opinion, these statistics bode well for activity for the next few months at least. Hopefully interest rates will continue to stay low for a while longer so that more people can take advantage of the ideal combination of low rates and already lower prices.

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Seattle Area Real Estate Statistics for February 2011

by Ryan Francescutti

The new year started off very well with busy open houses in January and a lot of inventory getting sold in February. We don’t have the same tax credit incentive that we had going into last April, but optimism still seems high for a good spring housing market this year. It will be hard to compare sales numbers this spring to last spring because of the tax credit, but if we can continue to get modest month over month increases in sales, that should reflect a healthy and sustainable trend. A sustained trend is what is needed to give evidence of some serious stability in the housing market after this multi-year down cycle. For the past year and a half, we have really just been bouncing along the bottom- that’s not a bad thing, it’s just not indicative of any kind of imminent rebound.

As for the February statistics for King and Snohomish Counties combined, the most glaring number to me is that pending sales increased 9% over last February, and that’s without the infamous tax credit! Now, closed sales are still off about 11% from last year, but the increase in pending sales bodes well for March closings. Active listings are pretty flat compared with January and down about 7% from last February. Since a lot of inventory has been sold over these first couple of months of the year, we are a little light on homes to choose from, but I expect that a new influx of homes will come on the market soon as the weather improves.

As far as prices go, we did have a little dip in January, but have popped back up slightly to an average of $382,000 and $174/sqft. That is off about 8% from last year at this time. Last month I mentioned that the January dip could be more of a headfake than the beginning of a new leg lower. At this point it could be just that- a headfake, but one month doesn’t tell the whole story so we’ll just have to wait and see what happens in the coming months.

Consecutive Days on Market continued its trend higher to 126 while the “Selling Price as a Percentage of Original Listing Price” bumped up slightly to 91%. The “Months of Inventory” based on CLOSED sales is staying fairly high at 8.6 months, but just like last month, if you look at it based on PENDING sales, it has continued to decline and is now at only 4.5 months.

I’m looking forward to an exciting and busy spring season! Now that the weather is slowly improving, if you are thinking about selling, please contact me today so I can help guide you in getting your home in tip-top shape for the market.

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