Real Estate Stats and Trends • May 3, 2012

More Support for a Housing Turnaround

by Ryan Francescutti

The latest NW Multiple Listing Service press release title says that the “Western Washington housing market is energized and showing signs of a definite turnaround.” You can read the entire release here. One big fact given is that the year-over-year change in selling prices was positive for the first time in four years! It was a modest 1.27% but still positive.

Inventory remains tight which is creating a sellers market in some areas. However, the article goes on to say that while we may technically be in a sellers market in many areas, enthusiasm needs to be tempered because that in and of itself, doesn’t mean homes are worth more money. It basically just means that the homes that are priced and presented well will more likely see an offer sooner rather than later.

Real Estate Stats and Trends • March 12, 2012

Has the Housing Market Reached the Bottom?

by Ryan Francescutti

The latest NW Multiple Listing Service press release titled ‘Washington Homebuyers Realizing “Market may have Reached Bottom of Cycle”‘ suggests that confidence in a market bottom is increasing across the Puget Sound. Very low inventory and very low interest rates contributed toward a huge pending sale increase in February. For example, the release states: “Within King County, pending sales were particularly robust in the Lake Forest Park/Kenmore neighborhoods (up 73 percent), Kent (up 61 percent), Burien/Normandy Park (up 58 percent) and central Seattle (up 56 percent). The northeast portion of Snohomish County also experienced strong sales (up 63 percent from a year ago).” You can read the full article here.

Low Inventory = Good News for Sellers?

by Ryan Francescutti

So far, the theme of 2012 is that there is definitely a lack of inventory. The housing market has been extremely busy in the low to median price ranges, but the upper middle to higher price ranges are starting to pick up steam too. The fact is, many buyers literally can’t find good homes to buy! Low prices and extremely low interest rates have pulled a lot of buyers off the fence in the first two months of the year. More homes will come on the market as we get into spring but that should be met with more buyers as well. So, it is reasonable to expect brisk activity for at least the next several months.

Since pictures can often tell a better story than words, take a look at this “heat map” for King and Snohomish Counties. It shows how most every MLS area has gone from a “balanced market” with 3-6 months of inventory in February 2011 to a “seller’s advantage” with less than 3 months of inventory as of the end of February 2012. Ignore most of the national news when it comes to housing because real estate truly is local. If you’re thinking about making a move, Call a Realtor with experience who knows your neighborhood to get specific professional advice for your situation.

Real Estate Stats and Trends • February 10, 2012

North King County Real Estate Recap for January 2012

by Ryan Francescutti

January housing market stats are out so let’s do a little recap and analysis of housing market activity in North King County. The charts below include statistics for the cities of Shoreline, Lake Forest Park, Kenmore, and the King County part of Bothell. This first graph shows the active homes for sale in light green, the homes under contract (pending) as the red line, and closed sales in blue. You can see quite clearly that the inventory of available homes is the lowest it’s been in a long time. Part of that is due to the time of year and it will be natural for more homes to come on the market as we get closer to spring. But even with the lower inventory, pending sales increased quite dramatically in January. That tells me there is some pent up demand from buyers and they are out there taking advantage of historically low interest rates and lower prices. A relatively small number of sales closed in January but that’s not too unusual because fewer people are making offers in December. The pending sales line should precede closed sales by 1-2 months so it is a leading indicator of sales that will close in February and March.

Now let’s look at prices. The average sales price for this north end of King County last month was $342,000 and $148/sqft. That is down about 10% from January 2011. BUT, I really don’t feel like you can say that all homes lost that much value last year. I believe that a lot this last year’s overall price decline is attributed to the fact that a higher percentage of lower priced homes sold. If you look just at homes priced between $300,000 and $600,000 in this same area, average prices actually increased slightly!

Average consecutive days on market increased to 113 from 102 days in December. But, we were at 139 days last January. And it’s very encouraging to see that the sales price, as a percentage of the listing price, increased to 96% from 94% in December and from 92% last January.

Finally, another measurement of the low inventory is shown in this Months of Inventory chart. We are at only 3.1 months of inventory based on Pending sales. Most of last year was very healthy in the 3.7 to 4.8 range. Getting under 3 months of inventory would basically be a sellers market while 3-6 months is a balanced market and above 6 would be a buyers market. Of course, every price range is different so there is definitely more demand in certain areas and prices than in others.

Real estate markets are extremely local so every house and neighborhood is unique. Use these trends as a guideline, but at the point you are thinking about selling your home, or if you find a new home that you think you want to buy, consult with a Realtor who knows your area who can assess the property, the neighborhood, and your specific situation.

*Statistics not compiled nor published by the NWMLS

Real Estate Stats and Trends • February 6, 2012

Housing market starting to heal itself?

by Ryan Francescutti

Latest NW Multiple Listing Service press release: “Housing market “healing itself,” numbers are “astoundingly good.” Click here for the full release: http://www.nwrealestate.com/nwrpub/common/news.cfm

Real Estate Stats and Trends • January 9, 2012

King County Real Estate Recap for December 2011

by Ryan Francescutti

Happy New Year! This month, I would like to give a perspective of King County real estate activity over the last 5 years…

If you recall, at the end of 2006 and at the beginning of 2007, the housing market was starting to shudder a bit in other parts of the country, but things were still going pretty strong in the Seattle area. That spring of 2007 was very busy and prices and sales topped out in the middle of that year. The number of sales started to decline after June 2007 but the inventory kept ballooning to new heights until the middle of 2008. Inventory remained elevated through 2009 and most of 2010. Inventory in 2011 actually remained relatively low throughout the entire year and especially as we hit the end of the year.

Looking back to December 2006, we had almost exactly the same amount of active homes for sale as we did last month. But, the number of Pending sales has declined 17% and the number of sold properties has declined 24% since then. While that doesn’t sound great, Pending and Closed sales are up over 2010 levels so the market seems to be trying to find a base.

As far as prices go, in King County we peaked out in July 2007 at an average sales price of $599,000. Average dollar per square foot reached it’s top in May 2007 at $267/sqft. Last month, the average sales price was $392,000 and $175/sqft. That is a decline of a little over 34%. While we are essentially at new lows since the peak, part of the softness in pricing may be seasonal so I would suspect at least a little rebound as we head into spring and summer.

Another interesting market dynamic is to look at the ‘Average Days on Market’ and the ‘Sales Price as a Percentage of the List Price.’ In December 2006, we were averaging 64 days on the market. Last month, it was 99 days, or a 54% increase. Also, in December 2006, sales prices were averaging 97% of the Original List Price. Last month, homes were selling on average at 92% of the Original List Price.

Finally, after a wild ride up in late 2008 into 2009, the inventory of active homes for sale has come back down to pre-crisis levels. In December 2006, there was 3.1 months of inventory and last month there was 4.2 months of inventory. I can’t stress enough how important a modest amount of homes for sale is for a healthy market. It’s good old fashioned supply and demand. In the boom years in 2005/2006, there was a ton of demand and very little supply, and then in the bust years, there was huge supply but little demand. Now we are back to modest supply and modest demand which I think is a perfect recipe for securing a base from which prices and activity can grow.

January has started off with a bang with busy open houses and buyers resolving to get off the fence. I expect this to be a busy spring and another decent year overall with a slight increase in activity over 2011 and even a slight increase in prices. That’s just a best guess on my part but I think the housing market now has the wind at its back given that we have a slightly better economy and job market and there is the desire for politicians to “not rock the boat” in an election year. Top that off with a little inflation and I believe the market will be in better shape come 2013.

*Statistics not compiled nor published by the NWMLS

Buyer Tips • Realtor Benefits • Seller Tips • January 3, 2012

What Can a REALTOR® Do For You as a Buyer?

by Ryan Francescutti

When we think of selling a home, the services a REALTOR® can provide usually seem worth the cost of their
commission, but what about as a buyer? What can a REALTOR® do for you as a home buyer, and is the commission
worth the services they can provide? Remember, even though the commission is usually paid by the seller, hiring a REALTOR® as a buyer’s agent means your interests will be represented and protected.

Here are five great reasons you should hire a REALTOR® when you are in the market for a new home!

REALTORS® Can Help You Determine Your Budget—With a few simple pieces of information, a REALTOR® can help you pre-determine what kind of budget you may be looking at for your new home, and can match you with potential lenders that are right for you.

REALTORS® Have Access To Resources You Don’t—While a lot of real estate listings are available online, there are still
resources and listings that are only available through a REALTOR®. If you are looking for something very specific, having their insider knowledge may be crucial to finding that perfect home.

REALTORS® Can Read Between The Lines Of Listings—There are a lot of catchy phrases that often appear in home listings, and your agent can tell you what they really mean.

REALTORS® Increase Your Negotiating Power—A REALTOR® can not only increase your ability to negotiate things like price, they can also give you advice on things like contingency contracts and required paperwork.

A REALTOR® Can Help You Navigate Through The Closing Process—The closing process can be a complicated process, and a REALTOR® can make sure all the details are addressed and that you are making a good financial investment.

Purchasing a home is a huge financial investment, and having a professional REALTOR® looking after your interests through the process is very important.

Real Estate Stats and Trends • December 12, 2011

King and Snohomish County Real Estate Recap for November 2011

by Ryan Francescutti

See below for charts and stats for the housing market as of the end of November for King and Snohomish Counties combined. As it often happens this time of year, the inventory of available homes is decreasing steadily. There are actually 25% fewer homes for sale this year than there were last year. However, sales are holding up nicely– pending sales are up 19% and closed sales are up nearly 26% from last year.

Prices did take a dip in October, as I mentioned last month, but so far they are holding pretty steady in that same range. The Average sales price is $361,000 and $166/sqft for the two counties combined. Days on market bumped up a little to 97 days, from 92. And months of inventory is holding pretty firm around 5 months, based on closed sales. That indicates a fairly balanced market.

To summarize the housing market right now in our area: Inventory is tight, prices are down slightly from earlier in the year but holding steady, and interest rates are still very, very low. I still see the lower price ranges being most active even as we head into the new year, but there are great deals at higher price ranges so it’s a perfect time to “move up” if you can afford to do so.

At the beginning of January, I will do full year recap and provide stats to show how the market has changed over the last 5+ years.

Happy Holidays and Happy New Year!

Real Estate Stats and Trends • December 7, 2011

November Home Sales Outpace New Listings in NWMLS Data

by Ryan Francescutti

Latest NW Multiple Listing Service press release: “Home sales outpace number of new listings for first time in five years.” Click here for the full release: http://www.nwrealestate.com/nwrpub/common/news.cfm

Buyer Tips • Seller Tips • December 1, 2011

Five Ways to Make Your Home Bright, Cozy, and Cheerful

by Ryan Francescutti

December is a great month to cozy things up at home. The brighter and warmer a house looks and feels, the happier you will be. Here are a few tips to make your house as cheery as possible as we head toward the shortest day of the year!

Fix it up: The light fixtures in your home are a reflection of your personal style and taste. Adding additional fixtures or replacing ones that aren’t your favorites can be a fun and creative way to brighten up your home!

Candlescaping: Candles are generally inexpensive and are extremely versatile. Adding various candle arrangements to different rooms in your home will instantly create an atmosphere of warmth and style. Get creative! You might also favor scented candles to add a pleasant aroma to different areas of the house.

Mirror, mirror, on the wall: Mirrors not only create the illusion that your rooms are even more spacious than they already are, they also reflect light! Make your house warm and cozy by adding a few inexpensive mirrors in hallways, bedrooms, and living spaces.

Light the way: Lighting isn’t just for indoor decorating—it’s also a valuable addition to the exterior of your home. Line your walkway or garden with cost-efficient solar light fixtures (no electricity needed!) to create a brilliant nighttime landscape outside your home.

Open up: During daytime hours, keep your draperies and window coverings open. This will not only allow your home to absorb heat, but it will brighten up the winter days that you spend at home.